2011 Aleutian Low Season

The 2011 Aleutian Low season began on September 14, 2011, the day KWS began following the lows, and will finish on December 31, 2011. Aleutian Weather Service was meant to be following the lows, but they found out they did not have the correct technology. But then on September 25, KWS agreed to split the forecasting areas into 4 areas. The forecast areas are maintained from Kiwi City, Anchorage, Juneau and Fairbanks. In the list below, only named storms are featured. From September 24, the KWS began using a new scale (see Scale). AWC has predicted that the months of November, December and January produce the most intense storms.

AWC stopped following the lows on October 5 due to the lack of money. However on October 16, the US Government handed over $30,000 to AWC meaning that they could now track the lows again.

Seasonal Forecasts
Only the AWS (Aleutian Weather Service) and KWS (Kiwish Weather Service) produce seasonal forecasts for the lows. Each team is led by 20 people who control the organization.

On September 6, the KWS forecast 24 named storms, with a Low Intensity Scale (LIS) of 90 to 140. Since the season was meant to start earlier this year KWS did not provide a forecast for medium lows and major lows.

Meanwhile on September 12, AWS forecast 29 named storms with a LIS of 125. In the ranged forecast, they predicted 25-40 named storms and a LIS of 110-140.

On September 18, KWS released their 2nd forecast. They predicted 18 to 28 named storms, 12 to 20 strong lows and 6 to 10 major storms.

On September 24, AWS released their 2nd forecast. They are predicting 20 to 28 named storms, 14 to 22 category 1-3 storms and 7-12 category 3-5 storms while a LIS prediction of 80 to 125.

Once again on October 1, KWS released their 3rd forecast. They upped everything. They are predicting 45 to 60 depressions, 36 to 50 named storms (Category 1+) and 11 to 16 major lows (Category 3+). No LIS forecast was provided.

Strong Aleutian Low Aaron
Aaron was first found on the maps on September 14 with a central pressure of 994mb, instantly giving it a name. It started to move south, then north east. Aaron made 1st landfall on the Alaska Peninsula at 990mb. Just before 2nd landfall, it peaked at 988mb. It has since been weakening. On September 16, it passed 995mb which meant it lost its name.

On September 18, after entering sea again, it gained its name again. On the same day, it made landfall on the Alaska Peninsula. It is currently 400 miles NE of Kiwi City, Kiwiland. The pressure was 984mb, meaning that it has attained strong Aleutian Low status. A few hours later, it reached its minimum pressure of 980mb, making it the strongest low of the season at the time, later on Chris passed its central pressure with 970mb. It has since weakened. Another low formed inside Aaron with a pressure of 980mb. In Anchorage, 50mph winds were recorded. The low that formed inside Aaron became so strong that it absorbed Aaron.

Weak Aleutian Low Ben
Ben formed on September 18 just 150 miles south of Alaska's capital Juneau. It moved south and then affected the Pacific Northwest. Ben was producing 45mph winds and 70mph gusts in British Columbia and Washington state. It then had a central pressure of 991mb. Ben then moved over into the sea and weakened. Therefore it became an ex-low on September 18 at 2200 UTC and then moved out of the Aleutian Low Basin.

Major Aleutian Low Chris
Chris formed on September 19 at 1600 UTC near the center of Aaron. Just a couple of hours after forming, its pressure was 978mb. The winds were 55mph. It was so strong that it even sucked up Aleutian Low Aaron. Then at the 2000 UTC advisory it went down to 975mb, making it the strongest storm of the season at the time. At 2100 UTC, it has a central pressure of 973mb. On September 20, it earned Major Aleutian Low status with a central pressure of 970mb. It is producing strong winds over 1,000 miles away from its center. Then just hours later it weakened back into a Medium Aleutian Low. On September 20, KWS said that a new low called David could form inside Chris. Its pressure has been the same, 973mb, for the last 24 hours. Since September 21, 0300 UTC, it has been slightly weakening. On September 22, it weakened into a Weak Aleutian Low. Then 24 hours later, it began to start a rapid weakening stage, which means it is weakening at a rapid speed. It then became an ex-low on September 22 and then dissipated completely on September 23. On October 2, Aleutian Low Katrina broke Chris' record by having a central pressure of 968mb.

Strong Aleutian Low David
David formed on September 21 with a central pressure of 982mb. It was centered over the USA-Canada border producing strong winds and hurricane force winds. It then became an ex-low just 2 hours later.

Strong Aleutian Low Edwin
Edwin formed on September 23 with a central pressure of 984mb. It was centered over US-Canada border. This storm is also a Panhandle Low as it formed within the Alaska Panhandle. Edwin is also the 3rd Panhandle Low of the season. At 1500 UTC it had its peak with 977mb. Then from 1700 UTC it began a Rapid Weakening Cycle (RWC). Then just a couple of hours later, it weakened into a Weak Aleutian Low. Just 2 hours later, Edwin became an ex-low.

Aleutian Low Fabio
Fabio formed on September 23 with a central pressure of 990mb. It formed over the Anchorage area. It continued to stay in the same position before weakening to a Subtropical Depression the next day. So far, it has done no damage to the Anchorage area or any other area. But then on September 25, it strengthened again into a Category 1 low. But just a couple of hours later, it weakened back into Subtropical Depression Fabio. Then just 1 hour after it was downgraded again, it restrengthened back into a Category 1 low. Fabio is due to move eastwards as a ridge of high pressure is moving across the Aleutians. Fabio moved east, and then weakened into an ex-low, as predicted by AWC Anchorage. NWS Anchorage and NWS Fairbanks issued flood warnings for South and Central Alaska due to Fabio.

Subtropical Depression Seven
Seven formed near the Aleutian Islands on September 24 as a Subtropical Depression. The pressure at the time of formation was 999mb. It was due to strengthen into a Category 1 low as there was a ridge of high pressure to the south of Seven. But then it dissipated late on September 24.

Subtropical Depression Eight (Roke)
Depression Eight formed near the Alaska capital Juneau. It is the 4th Panhandle Low of the season. The central pressure of Depression Eight was 1006mb. On September 25, it continued to move south. Then later on, it moved into the Pacific Northwest, making KWS issue its final advisory on the system. On satellite images, Eight is clearly seen. Its cloud stretches from Juneau, AK to California and the Central Pacific. It has the second biggest cloud of an Aleutian Low after Aleutian Low Chris. During the night, the depression strengthened to a Category 1, but it could not be named as the storm was not in the basin. It is continuing to strengthen as it has dry air between the rainbands, which is a factor for strengthening. Still, the depression continued to strengthen over British Columbia, becoming a Category 2. But it could not be named as it was not in the Alaska Basin. AWS Kiwi City confirmed that the depression was previously Super Typhoon Roke. The system was producing 30ft waves off the coast of British Columbia.

Aleutian Low Gareth
Gareth formed on September 25 as a Category 1 low near Fairbanks, AK. Not much is known about the storm. The next day, it weakened into a Subtropical Depression. AWC Kiwi City then pointed out to AWC Fairbanks, that this low is a semi-permanent low that stays in the same position for a while. After this, AWC Fairbanks stopped following the storm and issued its final advisory on the system. AWC Anchorage also pointed out that this system could have been an anticyclone.

Aleutian Low Harry
Harry formed on September 27 near Juneau, AK as a Category 1 low. Models forecast the storm to move SW into the Pacific Ocean or SSW into the Pacific Northwest. Just 1 hour after Harry formed, AWS Juneau downgraded Harry into Subtropical Depression Harry with winds of 30mph and a central pressure of 997mb. Just 1 day after it formed, it dissipated and became part of Subtropical Depression Eleven. {{clear}]

Subtropical Depression Eleven
Eleven formed on September 28 as a small depression near Anchorage. It is currently producing 25mph winds and 40mph gusts. Normally depressions would get below a pressure of 1000mb, but a rare large high pressure is pushing in stopping Eleven from developing. The storm had very little cloud, so if most of the cloud dissipates, AWC will issue its final advisory on the system. On September 29, all of its clouds dissipated and AWC Anchorage issued its final advisory on the system.

Subtropical Depression Twelve
Subtropical Depression Twelve formed on September 28 along with Subtropical Depression Eleven. The storm had very little cloud, so if most of the cloud dissipates, AWS will issue its final advisory on the system. On September 29, all of its clouds dissipated and AWC Fairbanks issued its final advisory on the system.

Aleutian Low Ian
Ian formed north of the Aleutian Islands with a minimum pressure of 990mb, making it the strongest storm since Fabio a couple of days earlier. Ian was producing heavy rain over the Aleutians and has a cloud tail that reaches as far back as Japan. Ian had a minimum pressure of 989mb, just short of Category 2 status. It was downgraded to a depression.

Aleutian Low Jim
14R is the first ever Tropical depression in the Alaska basin. Early on September 30, 14R strengthened into a category 1 low. It continued to move south at a record forward speed of 87mph, the most of any storm above 45N. On September 30, it moved out of the Juneau area of responsibility and moved into the Lower 48 with a minimum of 1009mb.

Subtropical Depression Twelve-R
Subtropical Depression Twelve-R formed on September 29 from the remnants of Subtropical Depression 12. The storm had a pressure of 999mb before it dissipated.

Aleutian Low Katrina
Katrina formed from remnants of a Pacific Typhoon on October 2. It was first spotted off the coast of Russia with a pressure of 971mb making it a Category 2 low. It steadily strengthened through the next hour surpassing Chris' low pressure of 970mb. The pressure of Katrina was 968mb, making it the strongest storm of the season and the seasons second major low (Category 3). From 1500 UTC, the Category 3 storm began weakening further and at 1800 UTC it was downgraded into a Category 2 low. The future of Katrina is unknown.

Aleutian Low Liam
Liam formed from the remnants of Ian on October 2. It was hanging offshore but moved back on land. No damage or deaths have been reported so far. 20ft waves are being produced in the Gulf of Alaska. In addition to this storm, NWS Anchorage has issued Storm Warnings. In the afternoon of October 2, Liam weakened into a Subtropical Depression. It completely dissipated a couple of hours later.

Aleutian Low Murray (Hilary)
Hurricane Hilary's remnants moved into the Alaska basin and got named 'Murray'. At the time of the storm moving into the area, its pressure was 984mb. Early on October 3, AWC Juneau classified the remnants a 'Polar Low' not an extratropical cyclone. However, AWC Juneau is still following the system. The pressure has dropped 0mb in 12 hours. The future of Murray is unknown.

Aleutian Low Nathan
A low formed outside Aleutian Low Katrina, this low gradually strengthened. As it did, AWC Kiwi City named the storm Nathan and started issuing advisories on the system. AWC said that this storm was on an intensity rollercoaster, meaning that it would weaken then strengthen. The future of Nathan is unknown.

Aleutian Low Ollie
As Katrina moved south, a new low formed outside Katrina just near Nathan. It was classified as a Subtropical Depression. Just 1 hour later, it went into a rapid strengthening phase by rising 6mb in 1 hour which meant it became a category 1 storm and giving it the name 'Ollie'. The future of Ollie is unknown.

Subtropical Depression Twenty
Subtropical Depression Twenty was first seen on October 16. AWC Fairbanks says that it could have formed on October 14. It is the first ever depression not to have a cold or warm front.

Aleutian Low Paddy
Paddy formed near Japan and gradually strengthened. On November 8, it became the seasons first Category 5 low with a central pressure of 943 mb. The storm wrecked the coast of west Alaska.

Timeline

 * October 16
 * 1400 UTC - AWC Fairbanks begins following Subtropical Depression Twenty.

Low Intensity Scale
The Low Intensity Scale measures how intense the storm is by pressure, wind and day length. On September 30, KWS released their best track for each of the storms (Aaron-Jim). The old LIS figures can be found by clicking here